China makes history and contributes to U.S. military decline

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Military Balance+ platform published an article titled "Closing the gap: China homes in on US Navy VLS advantage" by Johannes R. Fischbach, in which he discussed the significant progress made by the Chinese Navy in vertical launch systems (VLS) and its ability to close the gap with the US Navy, which has long excelled in this area.

Vertical Launch Systems (VLS) is a modern technology for storing and launching missiles from warships, where missiles are placed in vertical cells ready for immediate launch. These systems provide great flexibility for ships, as they can carry multiple types of missiles, such as anti-aircraft missiles, anti-submarine missiles, and land-attack missiles. The technology also minimizes launch time and is characterized by lower maintenance compared to conventional systems.

According to the article, the PLAN has undergone a paradigm shift in its combat capabilities, possessing more than 50% of US capacity in VLS systems by the end of 2024. The number of Chinese launchers increased from less than 1.5% of US capacity in 2005 to more than 51% in 2024, following the introduction of more than 1,260 new launchers in 2021 and 2022. These systems were spread across modern Type-052D destroyers and Type-055 cruisers.

In contrast, the U.S. Navy faces several challenges, most notably the retirement of older ships such as the Ticonderoga cruisers, which were the backbone of the vertical launch systems. While the United States retains a qualitative advantage through its more advanced systems and long operational experience, the decline in U.S. production relative to China may narrow the gap further in the coming years.

The article noted that the US Navy is developing plans to offset this decline, including investing in unmanned platforms and increasing domestic production. However, new projects such as the DDG(X) will not be ready before 2030, complicating the task of maintaining conventional superiority.

Competition between China and the United States in this area will continue to be an important axis of global maritime balance over the next decade.