From pagers to spider webs: Simple weapons are changing the face of modern warfare

Operation Spider Web on June 1 can be seen as a turning point in the Russian-Ukrainian war, but it cannot be understood as a turning point on its own without comparing it to other recent events such as Israel's pager attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria in September 2024. The question is: What can we learn from these events? And how will conventional militaries outperform these new technological weapons?

However, it is a well-established fact that new weapons used in warfare can change the balance of power during a conflict; however, not much has changed in these wars. During World War II, Germany introduced the V-2 rocket. Germany lost badly in World War II. Israel is still struggling against Hamas and Hezbollah terrorism, and Russia is still in a better position as not much has changed with drone attacks on the Russian side.

However, technological innovation and its first use can change the dynamics of warfare. To prevent further attacks, new military technologies have emerged and will emerge to change the balance of power. It is necessary to delve deeper into these comparable military events to prevent future national security challenges for any nation. Notably, all of these technologies have been used as part of hybrid warfare, where a conventional army wages war on the battlefield and professional technical engineering is used to attack long-range units of opponents.

These two comparable technological innovations-Israel's armed pagers and Ukraine's forward-looking drones (FPV drones)-represent critical moments in modern military history, reshaping the dynamics of war and the balance of power through newly programmed technological applications. By examining their technological foundations, their impact on modern warfare, and the lessons they offer, we can understand how these innovations are driving strategic shifts during war.

Moreover, three other variables dominated and supported these events: Highly accurate intelligence gathering, low-cost cyber and drone attacks, and information warfare. Other elements, such as precision, asymmetry, and psychological impact on adversary camps, should also be noted.

Israel's pager attacks targeted everyday communication devices. These attacks involved remotely manipulating the devices to include explosive payloads. This was done through deep Israeli intelligence penetration of Hezbollah's supply chain, likely in collaboration with Taiwanese manufacturers to modify the devices before distribution. Hezbollah fighters used booby traps and AR924 pagers. More than 10 people were killed and about 3,000 injured in this attack. The attack aimed to disrupt Hezbollah's command structure and sow distrust in their communications networks by weaponizing a ubiquitous tool.

By targeting agents in Hezbollah strongholds, Israel demonstrated cyber espionage and kinetic warfare. Despite its low cost, the attack resulted in significant losses. This shift in modern warfare towards asymmetric tactics has forced military commanders to rework their warfare tactics, as large armies, sophisticated weapons and more complex communication technologies can be weaponized by sitting in front of a computer screen. Ukraine's attack deep into Russian territory is a recent example of how computer screens can be used for this purpose.

Ukraine's "Spider Web" operation, which utilized domestically produced FPV drones, signaled the transformative potential of low-cost autonomous technology in modern warfare. After 18 months of thorough planning, the Ukrainian Security Service smuggled 117 drones disguised as modular homes into Russia. Launched remotely, these drones struck five air bases (Amur, Belaya, Diaghilevo, Olenia, and Ivanovo), targeting high-value assets such as strategic bombers and surveillance aircraft. The attack, which took place 4,000 kilometers deep inside Russian territory, caused significant damage to 41 aircraft, including rare A-50 spy planes; Tu-95, Tu-22M3, and Tu-160 bombers; and An-12 and Il-78 transport planes. The estimated cost of the damage was over $7 billion, as confirmed by the Ukrainian Security Service, while US sources confirmed that at least 20 aircraft were hit.

The operation exploited the weaknesses of Russia's sprawling air defenses and exposed vulnerabilities in the hinterlands of a nuclear-armed nation. Unlike traditional air strikes, FPV drones provide a scalable and cost-effective means of projecting power deep into enemy territory without putting personnel at risk. This innovation has redefined asymmetric warfare, enabling smaller nations to challenge larger adversaries with affordable, accurate, and deniable technologies. The absence of casualties underscores a shift toward strikes that focus on physical assets, minimizing moral repercussions while increasing strategic impact.

These innovations have changed the shape of warfare by prioritizing precision, asymmetry, and psychological impact over traditional brute force. Israel's pager attacks and Ukraine's drone operation exploited precision and low-cost attacks, reflecting a shift toward guided and intelligence-driven warfare. The pagers disrupted Hezbollah's operational cohesion, while the Ukrainian drones crippled Russia's strategic air capabilities (even though they were old strategic bombers).

These modern military tactics prioritize disruption over destruction, exploiting weaknesses in command structures or critical infrastructure. This development reduces reliance on large militaries or expensive hardware, enabling non-state actors or smaller states to challenge great powers, as evidenced by Ukraine's ability to strike 4,000 kilometers deep into Russia.

The psychological dimension of these innovations is crucial to their impact. Israel's pager attack triggered fear and panic within Hezbollah, as operatives could no longer trust their basic communication tools, disrupting the pace of their operations. Ukrainian drone strikes humiliated Russia, which possesses significant military and intelligence power, and exposed the vulnerability of its air defenses, prompting a costly redeployment of its bomber fleet.

These operations show that modern warfare is increasingly targeting the enemy's psyche, whether through distrust, embarrassment or fear, rather than just physical destruction. This shift reinforces the strategic value of technology, as a single well-executed operation can force adversaries to restructure their security protocols and divert resources from the battlefield.

Now, the lessons for militaries around the world from these events can be as follows: First, they learn to accept the democratization of technologies. Unlike the expensive, large-scale conventional weapons and dense military personnel that have given great armies power for centuries, they can now be transformed with a small investment in new modern technologies. They can also enable smaller actors to compete with large and mighty armies. And if available to non-state actors and local militias, they can provide a level playing field and increase the risk of proliferation.

Second, the weaponization of civilian infrastructure or the dual use of common civilian spaces, as seen in Israeli pagers, highlights the need for strong supply chain security. States must protect everyday technologies from being reused as weapons. Cell phones, laptops, cars, watches, televisions or any other electronic devices can be hacked and turned into weapons. To prevent these catastrophic events, civilian and military leaders alike are preparing to prevent apocalyptic events.

Third, these operations highlight adaptability. Israel's and Ukraine's operations were flexible, relying on commercially available technologies repurposed for military use. Future wars will favor states that can innovate quickly, incorporating off-the-shelf technologies such as artificial intelligence, drones, or IoT devices into their arsenals. Governments and militaries must prioritize research and development in dual-use technologies while fostering public-private partnerships to stay ahead of adversaries.

Fourth, strategically, these operations emphasize the value of surprise and deception. Israel's clandestine manipulations and Ukraine's smuggled drones relied on surprising adversaries.

Future conflicts are likely to prioritize intelligence and covert operations, requiring states to invest in counterintelligence and cybersecurity. The global community can learn from the resilience of target populations, such as Hezbollah's shift to alternative communications and Russia's relocation of its air assets.

In short, Israel's pager attack and Ukraine's "spider web" operation illustrate the transformative power of technological innovation in warfare. These developments have shifted warfare toward asymmetry, precision, and psychological impact, from long-range missiles to modern drones and cyber-physical weapons. They are teaching the world to prioritize adaptability, secure civilian infrastructure, and invest in intelligence and counterintelligence.

Rahul Pandey - Center for East Asian Studies (China Section), School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University