This analysis, which is a translation of an interview with researcher Brett McGurk, examines the highly dangerous security and political situation in Iraq in mid-2010.

The researcher points to a disturbing pattern of large, regular bombings that occur every 90 days, specifically targeting state institutions and sites of symbolic value, and it is believed that Al Qaeda is behind most of these tactical attacks.

He also discusses the complex relationship between this escalation in violence and the political turmoil that followed the March elections, stressing that the months following the partial withdrawal of U.S. troops in August will be sensitive and uncertain.

Moreover, it highlights that regional uncertainties (represented by accusations of Syria and Iran) create a misunderstanding of security realities and further complicate negotiations to form an Iraqi government.